When the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) formed the “traffic light” coalition in 2021, the future of electric mobility in Germany looked promising.
The goals were clear: 15 million electric vehicles (EVs) by 2030, the expansion to one million charging points, and tax incentives to encourage the adoption of clean technologies.
In its early years, the government approved tax reliefs and funded key projects such as fast-charging infrastructure.
However, internal discord, exacerbated by ideological tensions between the FDP and the Greens, coupled with budgetary constraints, has hindered some progress.
The 27% drop in EV sales so far in 2024, following the removal of the environmental bonus in December 2023, is a clear example of this.
Although progress in eMobility has slowed this year, a slight recovery in the market has been observed over the past month.
The political crisis: Background and triggers
The recent dismissal of Finance Minister Christian Lindner marks the beginning of the coalition’s collapse.
This development, following months of budgetary disputes, has left the government without a majority, leading to the FDP’s withdrawal from the coalition.
Now, Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces a minority administration, relying on circumstantial support until new elections are tentatively scheduled for February 2025.
The uncertainty is not confined to the national arena.
The election of Donald Trump in the United States and trade tensions with China place Germany in a vulnerable position.
Additionally, the national economy, now in its second consecutive year of contraction, faces structural challenges such as reliance on fossil fuels and the need to modernise its infrastructure.
What is at stake for electromobility?
According to industry experts, fragmented policies have delayed crucial investments, such as the local production of batteries.
In this context, Mercedes-Benz and Stellantis, among others, have paused strategic projects.
York Kolb, Managing Director at BRANDS IN GREEN GmbH, tells Mobility Portal Europe:
“The government’s indecisive approach and inconsistent subsidy programmes have eroded consumer confidence, slowing the transition to cleaner mobility.”
He suggests the focus should be on urging manufacturers to produce affordable EVs and reintroducing purchase subsidies.
Likewise, he recommends accelerating the rollout of charging infrastructure and facilitating electric logistics for small businesses.
Meanwhile, Hildegard Müller, President of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), states:
“What is needed is a government that takes responsibility, strengthens its position and thus the national economy and growth, thereby securing the future of work and employment.”
She adds: “In the interest of the entire country, new elections must be held as soon as possible. Germany cannot afford further stagnation.”
Chancellor Scholz, on his part, has sought to project assurance by promising a parliamentary vote of confidence in January.
However, the opposition, led by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), is calling for immediate elections.
Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, stated, “The coalition has failed, and Germany cannot afford this leadership vacuum.”
For his part, Robert Habeck, Vice-Chancellor and a prominent figure in the Greens, noted that while ideological differences were insurmountable, his party remains committed to the climate agenda and is open to new alliances after the elections.
The coming months will be crucial.
The CDU leads the polls with 32%, giving the Greens between 9% and 11%.
In this context, a total of 113 members of the German Bundestag have filed a motion in Parliament to ban the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Ideally, this would occur before the anticipated elections scheduled for 23 February, in which this party could become the second-largest force, according to recent polls.
It is noteworthy that right-wing populist parties tend to favour fossil fuels.
“This could hinder the expansion of renewable energies, which are essential for sustainable electromobility,” asserts York Kolb.
The direction the country takes in the coming months will define not only its political stability but also its capacity to lead the energy transition in Europe.
A potential alliance between the CDU and the Greens could balance economic and ecological priorities.
The reintroduction of subsidies and a clear strategy for infrastructure could prove essential for achieving the 2030 targets.
