Those that have received the buses are struggling to cover costs or are using grey hydrogen, which is also expensive. Cities still awaiting delivery are deeply concerned about operational costs.
The letter included examples of the costs that public transport in Chełm will face for hydrogen. The current price of one kilogram of hydrogen is $16.50, compared to $1.18 for the same amount of diesel. Over the course of a year, this price difference amounts to $655,000.
The letter makes the entirely false claim that hydrogen is a solution to climate change, when in fact it is a major climate problem.
Poland was already on my radar regarding buses, as it is home to Solaris, a major European bus manufacturer supplying many of the continent’s hydrogen buses. Solaris, much like New Flyer in North America, has made a strategic misstep that is likely to result in significant financial difficulties. As I pointed out about New Flyer, for every hydrogen bus it sells, it is likely to lose three battery-electric bus sales to competitors like BYD. This is because its battery-electric buses are more expensive and have inferior specifications, as the company wastes time and resources on costly hydrogen buses instead of optimising its battery-electric buses. Additionally, hydrogen buses are more expensive to maintain and operate, leaving customers dissatisfied.
Solaris, for instance, manufactures and sells electric buses. The Polsat Plus Group, in collaboration with ZE PAK, a leading energy company in Poland, has also developed a hydrogen bus. Of course, ZE PAK desperately needs hydrogen as an energy carrier to remain viable.
This issue warrants detailed analysis to determine the financial challenges different cities may face as a result.
Polish Public Transport Agencies Operating or Purchasing Hydrogen Buses
I compiled this dataset from public sources. Any errors are my own, and the figures should be considered reasonably accurate, though circumstances may have changed since public announcements. One thing I’ve observed about hydrogen energy announcements is that they are celebrated with fanfare but cancellations rarely make the news.
It appears six cities have or are planning to integrate hydrogen buses into their fleets. Most of these cities also plan to acquire more battery-electric buses than hydrogen buses, indicating that hydrogen is reserved for cases where battery-electric buses currently lack sufficient range.
As a transport strategy, this is the wrong approach. Battery energy density increases annually, while battery costs rapidly decline. Electrifying shorter routes immediately and transitioning longer routes as costs drop and range improves is the correct strategic choice. Betting against batteries in the 2020s is akin to betting against bandwidth in 2000—a poor decision.
Hydrogen sourcing is another point of interest. Konin sources its hydrogen from an electrolysis plant operated by the Polsat Plus Group and ZE PAK, a 2.5 MW facility capable of producing 1,000 kg of hydrogen per day—sufficient for 40 buses, although it currently supplies just one, and presumably six once the new buses arrive. A tonne of hydrogen per day is insufficient for any industrial process, suggesting the electrolyser operates at very low capacity, making hydrogen costs extremely high while awaiting increased demand.
While the facility uses renewable energy from nearby solar farms operated by ZE PAK, compliance with temporal and additionality criteria remains unclear. Temporal compliance depends on whether renewable energy is generated simultaneously with hydrogen production, which has not been confirmed. Additionality requires the development of new renewable energy sources specifically for the project, which also remains unverified. These factors are critical in determining whether Konin’s hydrogen qualifies as fully green under international standards.
This is especially significant in Poland, where the electricity grid remains one of Europe’s most carbon-intensive. In 1990, coal accounted for approximately 98% of Poland’s energy mix. By 2023, this share had dropped to around 60.5%, thanks to increased adoption of renewables, which now account for 27% of the country’s electricity production.
Grid marginal electricity in Poland is still predominantly coal-based. If the electrolyser operates when it is cloudy or the sun isn’t shining, coal plants are likely supplying the electricity. This makes the hydrogen produced much less environmentally friendly.
Moreover, the electrolyser is not located at the bus terminal but at the ZE PAK power complex, 14 kilometres from the city. Hydrogen buses must travel 28 kilometres round trip for refuelling. Urban public transport buses typically travel 200 to 400 kilometres, so to gain additional range, they must travel 10% more to refuel. This adds significant operational costs due to high hydrogen prices and additional driver time—about an hour per trip.
Such costly and climate-ineffective solutions are 90% funded by the Polish government.
For instance, Poznań has partnered with PKN ORLEN, a major Polish oil and energy company, for hydrogen supply. However, ORLEN’s hydrogen is grey, produced from natural gas. With a 15-year contract to deliver 1.8 million kilograms of hydrogen, transportation involves 160-kilometre truck trips each way, further diminishing any environmental benefits.
The Polish government should abandon hydrogen lobbying and focus on battery electrification, a genuine climate solution.
