United Kingdom (UK) electric car sales recorded their best month on record in September, with over 50,000 new units registered.
Taken all together, automakers are beating the targets in the Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate by using additional rewards for selling more hybrid vehicles, as registrations of non-electric petrol and diesel units recorded their smallest share of newly registered vehicles in UK history
New AutoMotive now projects that there will be a surplus of ZEV mandate credits in 2024, due to carmakers’ collective overachievement of the regulatory requirements.
Sales of purely electric car sales grew 23.3 per cent when compared to September 2023, representing 20.8% of newly registered cars.
August and September 2024 have seen the strongest sales of electric vehicles (EVs) since December 2022, continuing a trend that has seen EV sales in the UK continue to grow far faster than in the rest of Europe.
Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive, says: “The UK’s electric car market is fizzing with life. Electric car registrations grew by almost a quarter in September, with one in five new cars an EV.”
He continues: “Sensible government policy is driving an emerging great British success story, with electric car registrations here outperforming the rest of Europe. We are in a global race to get EVs on the roads and Britain is pulling into the fast lane.”
“The UK car market is going through a period of profound change, and parts of the retail industry are moving quicker than others. Fortunately the vast majority of people in the UK will feel the climate and air pollution benefits no matter how clean vehicles are sold,” he adds.
BEV sales had their best ever month of sales
Battery EV sales had their best ever month of sales, with 53,000 units, up 23 per cent on the same month last year and a market share of 20.8 per cent.
Out-performance against CO2 targets means most firms don’t need to reach the 22 per cent headline EV target and the industry now has a surplus of credits.
“The rapid rise in EV volumes coming to UK roads means we needn’t worry about the numbers of private buyers,” the report indicates.
It means the lower cost and enjoyment of going electric are in reach of ever more consumers.
Growth in EV sales was broad-based: with Honda, Toyota, Peugeot and Ford seeing the biggest percentage increases on September 2023.
BMW, Mercedes, MG and Kia all saw fewer sales, but each firm is comfortably ahead on the ZEV mandate target.
Chinese owned manufacturer market share remains steady at only just 18 per cent.
No sign of vehicle rationing
Media has been fixated by the claim that manufacturers were holding back petrol cars to meet otherwise impossible ZEV mandate targets.
But sales moved by less than 0.3 per cent on September 2023 levels, suggesting that this is a dealership myth.
Dwindling ICE sales
More than 60 per cent of vehicles have some form of electrification.
Combined market share of petrol, diesel and alternative liquid fuel vehicles are down below 40 per cent for the first time, meaning the UK is well on course to end their sale in 2030.
Car ZEV Mandate Tracker
In a strong September, some manufacturers have massively improved performance this month – Ford cut their deficit by 20% this month, whilst Stellantis and Honda have both halved their gap, and are on course to end the year with a surplus.
September’s sales also mean the industry has – when CO2 emissions outperformance is taken into account – exceeded the ZEV mandate target for 2024, and now has an excess of credits.
This is important because it means that the price paid by individual manufacturers who fall short of targets – and need to trade with firms who have outperformed – will be low.
The glut of supply has made this a buyer’s market.
Estimated real ZEV sales target
The ZEV mandate requires manufacturers met a 22% electric car sales target in 2024.
They generate additional credits by exceeding CO2 emissions targets on their ICE vehicle sales.
Vans summary
While market share for battery electric vans remained at a fairly typical six per cent for the month of September, key manufacturers saw a ZEV Mandate-busting share of battery electric registrations.
Off the back of impressive battery electric van registrations in August, Peugeot were responsible for
nearly one in four of all electric units sales in September, managing to register nearly one new electric van for every four non-fully electric van.
With Ford still hovering around a one per cent BEV share for new van registrations in 2024, September marked a positive uptick in new battery electric van registrations – where battery electric registrations made up a five per cent share of new van registrations.
Now accounting for more than one in four new registrations of battery electric vans for September, hopefully this is a sign Ford are finding their feet in the battery electric van market.
The good news is, thanks to the easy-to-attain credits from the CO2 trading scheme for vans, the majority of manufacturers are continuing to look to be on track to meet their ZEV Mandate obligations.
Van ZEV Mandate Tracker
Amongst the top eight manufacturers, who account for more than 90% of all van sales, Nissan and SAIC (owners of Maxus) have already comfortably exceeded the ten per cent headline target on electric sales alone.
Furthermore, relatively easy-to-meet CO2 targets for diesel and petrol vans mean that Stellantis (makers of Peugeot, Vauxhall, Citroen and Fiat vans) and Toyota are also expecting a surplus.
Meanwhile Nissan – which also massively outperformed its CO2 targets – will have more credits to sell.
Renault are also very close to compliance.
For Mercedes, VW and especially Ford, reaching the target will be more of a stretch.
However, each firm can comply through a combination of selling more electric vans or cleaner ICE vans in the remaining months of 2024, buying excess credits from firms such as Stellantis who are on the front foot, and – if the price isn’t right – borrowing up to 90% of their allowances from future years.
