Autonomous driving is revolutionising the mobility sector, promising substantial benefits in safety and efficiency.
However, experts warn that, without adequate regulation and mobility policies, the impact of autonomous vehicles (AVs) on carbon emissions could be negative.
Why is this?
Studies indicate that the convenience of AVs may increase vehicle miles travelled (VMT).
This demand would be driven by new user groups, such as elderly individuals and those with reduced mobility, who currently rely less on private transport.
This increase in VMT could lead to intensive AV use, even for non-essential trips, resulting in higher CO₂ emissions and energy consumption.
Tamas Gabor, a Strategist in Sustainability & Mobility, tells Mobility Portal Europe: “Without shared-use policies, AVs will increase urban traffic.”
Furthermore, he states: “The societal consequences of AV adoption includes impacts on employment in the transportation sector, changes in urban planning and infrastructure, and issues related to social equity and accessibility.”
This has prompted urban planners and policymakers to propose measures to mitigate these undesirable effects.
The solution: Shared autonomous mobility
Shared mobility, combined with AVs, is emerging as one of the most promising solutions for reducing emissions and urban congestion.
A study by the ITF in Lisbon showed that using shared autonomous vehicles could reduce the number of cars needed in the city by up to 95%.
This freed up substantial urban space and drastically reduced congestion.
In this context, a single shared AV could replace several private cars, reducing energy consumption and the associated environmental impact.
“As the industry moves towards electric AVs, direct emissions are expected to decrease substantially,” states Gabor.
And that’s not all.
“Autonomous driving can help balance load,” secures Gabor.
For the shared AV model to be viable, the role of public policy is fundamental.
Internalising the external costs of private car ownership, such as emissions and the use of public space, is essential to make shared mobility options competitive and attractive.
Incentives for adopting these options may include tax benefits, reduced fees for shared AVs, and a robust, convenient public transport infrastructure.
This would enable smoother integration between AVs and other sustainable transport options, such as public transit and micromobility.
It is worth noting that private vehicle ownership consumes significant urban space, often limiting opportunities for other community needs like parks, pedestrian zones, and cycling paths.
“Reducing the number of cars through shared AVs can free up this space, enhancing urban livability and potentially boosting local economies through new businesses and recreational areas,” Gabor explains.
One of the key challenges within this framework is to reduce the trend towards individual vehicle ownership, a culturally strong barrier in certain regions like the United States.
“It’s important to recognize that private car ownership is valued by individuals due to the perceived benefits of control, flexibility, and assured availability“, he states.
In Europe, however, where urban density is higher and public transport systems are more advanced, reducing car access is already gaining traction.
A study cited by Gabor reveals that vehicle owners often underestimate the true cost of it, while the social costs of private cars are largely borne by society.
This highlights the need for shifts in perceptions and policy to transition towards more sustainable mobility models.
“While I advocate for policies supporting reduced vehicle fleets in urban and peri-urban settings, it’s crucial that these consider the high perceived value of private car ownership,” he explains.
He adds: “Alternative mobility solutions must strive to offer comparable levels of convenience, flexibility, and reliability to encourage people to make the shift.”
Autonomous vehicles face another challenge
Beyond the increase in vehicle miles travelled, AVs face another challenge: the energy consumption associated with computing.
A study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) suggests that a global fleet of AVs could emit as much CO₂ as today’s data centres.
In a scenario where a global autonomous fleet is deployed, a vast computational infrastructure would be required, potentially generating significant emissions.
The solution to this lies in achieving improvements in hardware efficiency and a greater share of renewable energy in the energy mix.
In this regard, researchers emphasise that, to prevent AV emissions from surpassing those of current data centres, each vehicle would need to operate with enhanced energy efficiency, using less than 1.2 kilowatts.
This involves developing more advanced and sustainable technology in terms of energy consumption to support this revolution without exacerbating the environmental impact.
This is why the transition to autonomous mobility must be accompanied by strategies that ensure its sustainability.
AVs have the potential to transform urban transport if implemented within an appropriate regulatory framework focused on reducing emissions and congestion.
According to TechRepublic, European locations such as Germany and the United Kingdom have earned the title of leaders in autonomous transport.
