Electric mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean is experiencing rapid growth, driven by increasing environmental awareness and a commitment to decarbonizing the transport sector.
By 2030, an optimistic scenario projects that the region could achieve a fleet of 20 million electric vehicles on the road, marking a significant shift towards cleaner and more efficient transport.
These data stem from a study conducted by the Latin American Energy Organisation (OLADE).
This growth would not only benefit the environment but would also drive technological innovation and investment in infrastructure.
Growth scenarios towards 2030
The future of electric mobility in the region depends on various factors, including the pace of public policy adoption, the development of charging infrastructure, and the availability of electric vehicles.
According to the presentation of the Electric Mobility Technical Note, three growth scenarios have been identified for the electric vehicle fleet in the region by 2030:
Conservative Scenario: This scenario projects a stock of 5 million electric vehicles by 2030. In this case, the energy required to supply this fleet would be 11,736 GWh, which would imply an investment of 2.5 billion dollars in electricity generation infrastructure.
Intermediate Scenario: Here, the fleet of electric vehicles would reach 10 million units. To meet the energy demand of this fleet, 23,472 GWh of electricity would be needed, requiring an investment of 5 billion dollars in renewable energy.
Optimistic Scenario: In the most ambitious scenario, a fleet of 20 million electric vehicles is projected by 2030.
This growth would require 46,943 GWh of energy, equivalent to 3% of the current electricity generation in the region.
To achieve this, an installed capacity of 11,405 MW in renewable energy and an investment of 10 billion dollars would be necessary.
Current progress in the electric vehicle sector
In 2023, Latin America has already shown significant progress in the adoption of electric vehicles.
In the past four years, the fleet of electric vehicles in the region has grown 14-fold, highlighting the increase in pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.
During the first half of 2024, the electric vehicle fleet grew by 60%, with countries such as Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Chile leading the electrification of transport.
Brazil, with over 152,000 electric vehicles on the road, is the leader in the region in absolute terms. However, in terms of per capita adoption rate, Costa Rica ranks first with 34.3 electric vehicles per 10,000 inhabitants, followed by Uruguay with 17.4.
On the other hand, the growth of electric buses has also been notable.
Chile and Colombia lead this segment, with 1,849 and 1,590 units respectively, and the regional fleet of electric buses has increased by 160% over the past three years.
This progress places Latin America in a prominent position globally, surpassing Europe and the United States in terms of electric buses per million inhabitants.
Challenges and opportunities in charging infrastructure
One of the biggest challenges for the expansion of electromobility in Latin America is the charging infrastructure.
Currently, the region has 4,848 public charging stations, with Brazil and Mexico having the highest number of stations.
However, to meet future demand, the region will need to substantially increase its charging network.
The analysis reveals that, on average, Latin America and the Caribbean have 3.3 charging stations for every 100 electric vehicles, surpassing Europe (1.3) and the United States (2.8), but still falling short of China (5.1).
This indicator shows that, although there has been progress, there remains a deficit that could become a bottleneck if measures are not taken to encourage the installation of more charging points, both in urban areas and on interurban road corridors.
A key strategy to overcome this challenge is to promote home and workplace charging, which would reduce pressure on the public charging network.
Additionally, policies should be implemented to encourage private investment in charging stations, such as tax exemptions and subsidies.
Consequently, the path towards an electric vehicle fleet of 20 million units in Latin America by 2030 is ambitious but achievable.
Current advances in the adoption of electric vehicles and buses show that the region is on the right track.
However, for the optimistic scenario to materialize, it will be crucial for governments and the private sector to work together to address the challenges of charging infrastructure and expand renewable energy generation capacity.
With a combination of appropriate public policies, investment in technology, and a focus on sustainability, Latin America has the potential to become one of the most dynamic regions in the transition to electric mobility, laying the groundwork for a cleaner and more sustainable future.
